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Statistics Don't Lie

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Old 03-04-2015, 03:38 PM
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Default Statistics Don't Lie


Last year (from Feb. 14 in Feb. 27) in the fiction forum there were 30 stories posted. Of the 30 posted, 10 stories went without a single critique and 9 stories had fewer than 3 critiques. Compare those statistics to this year where all 30 stories posted had received multiple critiques, and only one story received below 3 critiques. These stats prove contrary to what was stated about the decline of critiquing is untrue.

My study is incomplete (as far as who these members actually are and whether they are "talented" or not). When I find the time I'll post the names of these members...I'm sure today's members who critiqued so much work are just as talented as the members who critiqued much fewer posts last year.

Stats are facts...speak no lies. Again, Contrary to a belief there is a decline, the stats prove there is actually an increase in critiquing the work in the fiction forum.


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Old 03-04-2015, 03:51 PM
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I wasn't around back then, so I cannot attest to the fact, but I see your reasoning. While it is correct, there is a difference between causation and correlation in statistics if you will, and I believe the problem the other users stated was the "value" of the critique. I have read plenty of people's in depth critiques that are phenomenal (Lyndia and Azmanca-- to name a few-- will go at a story like a Zen-inspired samurai) but some are minimal at best. Not calling out any names in this department, but my own. I offer what I can when critiquing, but, as I am still learning, I know it is sub-par at best. So I admit I have contributed to the decline.
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Old 03-04-2015, 04:18 PM
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It's about quality -- not quantity.

And that was also before the Intellectual Table was closed, when we lost a lot of members. I'd like to see a month-by-month set of stats starting from June of last year.

And don't forget the Members Only section.
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Old 03-04-2015, 04:23 PM
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Originally Posted by JoeMatt View Post
It's about quality -- not quantity.

And that was also before the Intellectual Table was closed, when we lost a lot of members. I'd like to see a month-by-month set of stats starting from June of last year.

And don't forget the Members Only section.
I will be posting names of members who posted then and members who have posted now for analysis of talent level.
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Old 03-04-2015, 04:29 PM
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Just for the one 2 week period?

How do plan to analyze and rank "talent level?"
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Old 03-04-2015, 04:31 PM
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In any discussion of statistics, someone always says something like "83.7% of statistics are made up on the spot!" 100% of the people who say this think they're being clever and/or witty.

My favourite statistic is that the average person has fewer than two legs.

My second-favourite statistic is that half the population is of below average intelligence.
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Old 03-04-2015, 04:34 PM
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Originally Posted by daes13 View Post
I wasn't around back then, so I cannot attest to the fact, but I see your reasoning. While it is correct, there is a difference between causation and correlation in statistics if you will, and I believe the problem the other users stated was the "value" of the critique. I have read plenty of people's in depth critiques that are phenomenal (Lyndia and Azmanca-- to name a few-- will go at a story like a Zen-inspired samurai) but some are minimal at best. Not calling out any names in this department, but my own. I offer what I can when critiquing, but, as I am still learning, I know it is sub-par at best. So I admit I have contributed to the decline.
Thank you for seeing my point. Though, if you were to check the critiques from last year, you will find there are strong critiques as well as weak critiques.
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Old 03-04-2015, 04:35 PM
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As a quantitative outlook- no there is not a decline, but they are speaking of a qualitative outlook. I neither agree or disagree, simply due to the fact that I don't know.

I can neither confirm nor deny the validity of any statement...
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Old 03-04-2015, 04:38 PM
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Originally Posted by JoeMatt View Post
Just for the one 2 week period?

How do plan to analyze and rank "talent level?"
I will put your name, Max crash, Daes13, as well as all who have contributed to recent critiques besides the names of those who critiqued last years posts to prove their isn't any difference in talent.

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Old 03-04-2015, 04:42 PM
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"Talent" is subjective and when it comes to critiques, so is quality. And numbers for a two week period aren't enough to show any kind of trend.
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Old 03-04-2015, 04:42 PM
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Originally Posted by daes13 View Post
As a quantitative outlook- no there is not a decline, but they are speaking of a qualitative outlook. I neither agree or disagree, simply due to the fact that I don't know.

I can neither confirm nor deny the validity of any statement...
There are as many brilliant minds here now as there were last year.
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Old 03-04-2015, 04:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Non Serviam View Post
In any discussion of statistics, someone always says something like "83.7% of statistics are made up on the spot!" 100% of the people who say this think they're being clever and/or witty.

My favourite statistic is that the average person has fewer than two legs.

My second-favourite statistic is that half the population is of below average intelligence.
I'm not trying to be clever. Do a study instead of shooting your mouth off.
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Old 03-04-2015, 04:55 PM
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If you were to do a binomial sample of two different time periods, even with a 99% confidence interval, you would not have enough information to reject or fail to reject your null hypothesis of equal to or greater than critique value. It doesn't work to do a quantitative study for a qualitative claim.

I love the fact that you see this site as still conducive, and you need to hold on to that. Vice versa, JoeMatt and the others (not to call you out Joe, but you are the only one that is currently in this conversation) need to hold on to their claim that this site is in the decline. With you valuing the site as just as efficient new comers will have a nice atmosphere, with their claim of a decline they push others to become better.

Does that make sense?
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Old 03-04-2015, 05:35 PM
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Originally Posted by daes13 View Post
If you were to do a binomial sample of two different time periods, even with a 99% confidence interval, you would not have enough information to reject or fail to reject your null hypothesis of equal to or greater than critique value. It doesn't work to do a quantitative study for a qualitative claim.

I love the fact that you see this site as still conducive, and you need to hold on to that. Vice versa, JoeMatt and the others (not to call you out Joe, but you are the only one that is currently in this conversation) need to hold on to their claim that this site is in the decline. With you valuing the site as just as efficient new comers will have a nice atmosphere, with their claim of a decline they push others to become better.

Does that make sense?
Writers don't need to be pushed. in fact, nobody needs to be pushed. Didn't Bobby Knight push Larry Bird so hard that Larry ended up quitting Indiana to go play for Indiana State? Did that pushing equate to a gain or a loss for Indiana?

Writers need to find their on groove to become successful...the most important ingredient to becoming a successful writing is learning how to keep the butt glued to a chair. It's nice to have a site like this as an aid to writing. But, studying and patience are key elements, not pushing.

Not to stray from my observation, but you could check the posts from a year ago yourself. Everything is there in full view. There isn't any intellectual decline (many smart people still here). The arguments have declined, not the talent. Thus, the peacefulness now enjoyed has added to a much more pleasant atmosphere for new arrivals.

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Old 03-04-2015, 05:54 PM
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As Daes quite rightly states, it is my opinion.

I use words like "I feel" and "In my view". Good luck empirically testing my opinion.
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Old 03-04-2015, 06:12 PM
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Originally Posted by risk10 View Post
As Daes quite rightly states, it is my opinion.

I use words like "I feel" and "In my view". Good luck empirically testing my opinion.
Well, others have made your opinion "factual" without doing their homework. And, it is my opinion to rally around yours to make it factual isn't the right thing to do. Go look at last years posts yourself.

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Old 03-04-2015, 08:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Shelly View Post
Didn't Bobby Knight push Larry Bird so hard that Larry ended up quitting Indiana to go play for Indiana State? Did that pushing equate to a gain or a loss for Indiana?
I'm sorry, I know this really isn't the point, but being that I'm from Indiana and also a big basketball fan, I couldn't help myself.

Originally Posted by Larry Bird as reported by Larry Schwartz of ESPN
"People naturally think it was trouble between (Bobby) Knight and me, but it wasn't. The school was just too big. I was a homesick kid who was lost and broke."
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Old 03-04-2015, 09:18 PM
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Is anyone giving a shit about any of this apart from Shelley?
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Old 03-05-2015, 12:48 AM
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I personally think critique is delicate to some and strong to others.
some may be qualified and some may not.
the question is this
what are the rules a critique has to follow in order to ensure that he or she is doing the right thing.
I personally think a guideline on how to critique is in order.
this is to ensure consistency and avoid any mischief or bad reviews/feedback.
this is to make this thread objective and give members a reason to want to critique.
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Old 03-05-2015, 01:03 AM
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Originally Posted by Shelly View Post
I'm not trying to be clever. Do a study instead of shooting your mouth off.
I have absolutely no idea why my harmless humour caused this much hostility.
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Old 03-05-2015, 03:09 AM
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And 100% of people who drink water, die.

Not sure if member usernames should be posted up in some list. I'm sure people won't like the be singled out, even if it's for a study.
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Old 03-05-2015, 03:17 AM
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Originally Posted by Mike C View Post
Is anyone giving a shit about any of this apart from Shelley?
Stick to the topic. But, to answer your question...many do. Check out the thread about "decline." So many chimed in speaking from the tops of their heads. But it is always better to provide "proof" than to make up crap. Why should providing statistics to prove an opinion may be incorrect irritate anyone? Investigate...Scotland Yard...it's the proper course of action.

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Old 03-05-2015, 03:19 AM
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Originally Posted by Devon View Post
And 100% of people who drink water, die.

Not sure if member usernames should be posted up in some list. I'm sure people won't like the be singled out, even if it's for a study.

What about if it was a list of the hottest beaters? I wouldn't mind being in one of those
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Old 03-05-2015, 03:21 AM
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Originally Posted by Devon View Post
And 100% of people who drink water, die.

Not sure if member usernames should be posted up in some list. I'm sure people won't like the be singled out, even if it's for a study.
Names needn't be posted. They are already visible to all, along with the numbers.
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Old 03-05-2015, 03:35 AM
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Originally Posted by midwestamp View Post
I'm sorry, I know this really isn't the point, but being that I'm from Indiana and also a big basketball fan, I couldn't help myself.
I apologize then for misinforming people. I still never got the coaches style though.

Maybe using Maravich would have been a better example. He was a great player but his dad pushed him so hard, Pete ended up so unhappy and confused.
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Old 03-05-2015, 03:38 AM
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If the site is in decline, there will be an ebb to every thing, then if we keep trying it will eventually rise again. Who knows, maybe by next year it will again resume its spike. Eventually it will hit a lull again, but that just means we have to work harder.


And Rincewind: Are we talking about doing a calendar? Because I will do a calendar. As long as it's tasteful...
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Old 03-05-2015, 03:55 AM
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Originally Posted by daes13 View Post
If the site is in decline, there will be an ebb to every thing, then if we keep trying it will eventually rise again. Who knows, maybe by next year it will again resume its spike. Eventually it will hit a lull again, but that just means we have to work harder.


And Rincewind: Are we talking about doing a calendar? Because I will do a calendar. As long as it's tasteful...
It has spiked from last year...how could up be down? I think there is a lot more going on here than merely a concern about decline. To be honest, when it comes to critiquing pieces, I haven't seen so much enthusiasm in months. All this nonsense about "lack of quality" has no merit and is detrimental to the moral of members. As I said: it's making a mountain of a mole hill.
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Old 03-05-2015, 03:58 AM
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Originally Posted by daes13 View Post
If the site is in decline, there will be an ebb to every thing, then if we keep trying it will eventually rise again. Who knows, maybe by next year it will again resume its spike. Eventually it will hit a lull again, but that just means we have to work harder.


And Rincewind: Are we talking about doing a calendar? Because I will do a calendar. As long as it's tasteful...
It has spiked from last year...how could up be down? I think there is a lot more going on here than merely a concern about decline. To be honest, when it comes to critiquing pieces, I haven't seen so much enthusiasm in months. All this nonsense about "lack of quality" has no merit and is detrimental to the morale of members.
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Old 03-05-2015, 05:12 AM
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Originally Posted by Shelly View Post
All this nonsense about "lack of quality" has no merit and is detrimental to the morale of members.
I can't see that anyone but you thinks this has hurt morale -- no else seems to be complaining.

And I'm betting I could randomly pick another two week period and draw different conclusions. Or I could point to the "Members Only" section -- where the same few stories have been hovering at the top for weeks.

Looks like most everyone else could acknowledge the critiques have been weak -- and that we all could benefit if people spent more time on their work before posting. (Again, this is about quality -- not quantity.) So people are stepping up -- and however you look at it, that can't be a bad thing.

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Old 03-05-2015, 05:46 AM
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Originally Posted by JoeMatt View Post
I can't see that anyone but you thinks this has hurt morale -- no else seems to be complaining.

And I'm betting I could randomly pick another two week period and draw different conclusions. Or I could point to the "Members Only" section -- where the same few stories have been hovering at the top for weeks.

Looks like most everyone else could acknowledge the critiques have been weak -- and that we all could benefit if people spent more time on their work before posting. (Again, this is about quality -- not quantity.) So people are stepping up -- and however you look at it, that can't be bad thing.
Hi all,

I am writing this because I genuinely feel that the standard of work on display here and the value of the crits received as been declining over the last number of months.
I know posting this is unlikely to make me a popular figure, but I feel strongly, as I have found myself visiting and posting less and less on this site over the last 6 months. I am not the only one. Many talented members, some members for many years, have been inactive (left?) for nearly a year or more. This needs to change.

While I understand that this site is open for everyone of all levels of talent, the standard of work posted in the fiction site (where I frequent) is not the level it was this time last year. I honestly don't feel people are taking the time to look over their work and carefully edit it before posting it up.

To compound this, many critiques are rather less than helpful. They range from "this is great" (when really, the piece needs a lot of work) - to "this is rubbish" (usually reverting to name calling and escalating into personal attacks). This used to be the exception, yet, sadly, it is becoming the norm. I have commented on a few stories of late, but it seems that the standard of both work and feedback need to be addressed.





The critiques have been declining...this is untrue. As the statistics prove the critiques have risen. The standard of work? How do you keep newbies from posting their work? This is a separate issue and should have never been compounded with the issue of "critiquing."

Ironically, he goes on to say "he is visiting less" and then suggests talented members have been inactive or left. What's that all about?

This needs to change...well, then, change starts at home. Therefore, instead of complaining, do what you are bitching about...become more active!

He is speaking about FICTION section where he posts. As far as I can tell, the critiquing in the fiction section seems fine. There is a lot of talent there. Just as much as there was at any other time.

People not taking time to polish up their own work...again, this is a newbie problem which has nothing to do with "quality" of critiquing.

I could go on, but even you have to be getting the picture by now.

Name calling...well, on that one I happen to agree with him. I have been insulted numerous occasions. He got that one right, definitely.

Last edited by Cityboy; 03-05-2015 at 05:51 AM..
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